CHAPTER 01
Fundamentals
Core protocol parameters and network statistics.
Max Supply
21M
Hard cap
Consensus
PoW
SHA-256
Block Time
~10 min
Target avg
Current Reward
3.125
BTC per block
Halving Interval
210,000
Blocks
Circulating
~19.85M
94.5% mined
Full Nodes
~18,000+
Global network
Genesis Block
Jan 3, 2009
Block 0
CHAPTER 02
Price History
Bitcoin price evolution and annual return analysis.
Yearly Returns (2014–2026)
| Year | Return | Year | Return | Year | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | -58% | 2019 | +95% | 2024 | +121% |
| 2015 | +35% | 2020 | +305% | 2025 | +5% |
| 2016 | +125% | 2021 | +60% | 2026 YTD | -23% |
| 2017 | +1,369% | 2022 | -64% | ||
| 2018 | -73% | 2023 | +155% |
CHAPTER 03
Halving Cycles
Complete halving cycle framework across all four Bitcoin epochs.
Halving Data Across All Epochs
| Halving | Date | Block Reward | Price at Halving | Cycle Peak | Peak Date | Days to Peak | Gain % | Drawdown % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Nov 28, 2012 | 50→25 BTC | $12 | $1,163 | Nov 29, 2013 | 367 | 9,575% | -85% |
| 2nd | Jul 9, 2016 | 25→12.5 BTC | $650 | $19,783 | Dec 17, 2017 | 526 | 2,943% | -84% |
| 3rd | May 11, 2020 | 12.5→6.25 BTC | $8,600 | $68,789 | Nov 10, 2021 | 547 | 700% | -77% |
| 4th | Apr 19, 2024 | 6.25→3.125 BTC | $64,000 | $126,296 | Oct 6, 2025 | 548 | 715% | -53%* |
*ongoing — drawdown may deepen
CHAPTER 04
Bull & Bear Markets
Historical bear market analysis and structural patterns.
Major Bear Markets
| Bear Market | Start | End | Duration | Drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014–2015 | Dec 2013 | Jan 2015 | 410 days | -85% |
| 2018 | Dec 2017 | Dec 2018 | 364 days | -84% |
| 2022 | Nov 2021 | Nov 2022 | 371 days | -77% |
| 2025–26 | Oct 2025 | Ongoing | 182+ days | -53% |
CHAPTER 05
Technical Analysis
Pattern reliability, moving averages, and key technical frameworks.
Pattern Reliability on BTC
| Pattern | BTC Win Rate | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Head & Shoulders | 63% | Reliable at macro tops |
| Double Bottom | 72% | Strong at cycle lows |
| Bull Flag | 67% | Works in confirmed uptrends |
| Ascending Triangle | 65% | Breakout above resistance |
| Falling Wedge | 68% | Bullish reversal pattern |
Death Cross Warning: BTC death crosses are NOT reliably bearish — only 36% accurate at a 1-year horizon. Most are buying opportunities.
CHAPTER 06
On-Chain Metrics
Key blockchain-native valuation indicators and their zone frameworks.
MVRV Ratio (Market Value to Realized Value)
● Below 1.0 — Undervalued
1.0–2.5 — Fair Value
● 2.5–3.5 — Overvalued
● Above 3.5 — Euphoria
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)
● <0 — Capitulation
● 0–0.25 — Hope
● 0.25–0.5 — Optimism
● 0.5–0.75 — Belief
● >0.75 — Euphoria
Puell Multiple
● Below 0.5 — Accumulate
0.5–1.5 — Normal
● Above 2.0 — Distribution
Reserve Risk
● Below 0.002 — Accumulate
● Above 0.02 — Distribute
CHAPTER 07
Sentiment
Fear & Greed Index extremes and their predictive power.
Fear & Greed Extremes — Historical Outcomes
| Date | Reading | Category | BTC Price | 6-Month After |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2020 | 8 | Extreme Fear | $5,000 | +232% |
| Jun 2022 | 6 | Extreme Fear | $17,600 | +38% |
| Feb 2026 | 5 | Extreme Fear | $60,001 | TBD |
| Nov 2021 | 84 | Extreme Greed | $69,000 | -67% |
| Oct 2025 | 90 | Extreme Greed | $126,000 | -47% |
CHAPTER 08
Macro Correlations
Cross-asset relationships, institutional flows, and ETF impact.
Cross-Asset Correlation Matrix
| Asset | Bull Market Corr. | Bear Market Corr. | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 0.40–0.70 | 0.60–0.87 | Highest during risk-off |
| Nasdaq | 0.50–0.80 | 0.70–0.87 | Strongest tech correlation |
| Gold | 0.10–0.40 | -0.20–0.30 | Diverged sharply in 2025 |
| DXY | -0.30–(-0.60) | -0.40–(-0.70) | Inverse most of the time |
MicroStrategy Holdings
762,099 BTC
$57.6B aggregate cost | $75,696 avg price
ETF Cumulative Flows
$56.9B
Since Jan 2024 spot ETF approval
CHAPTER 09
Black Swan Events
Critical disruption events and their market impact.
2014
Mt. Gox Collapse
850,000 BTC stolen from the world's largest exchange, exposing catastrophic custodial risk.
Price impact: -47%
Mar 2020
COVID Black Thursday
Global liquidity crisis triggered a -53% crash in 24 hours, followed by a historic V-shaped recovery.
Price impact: -53% in 24h
May 2022
Terra/LUNA Death Spiral
Algorithmic stablecoin UST depegged, destroying $60B in value and triggering cascading liquidations across DeFi.
Systemic contagion event
Nov 2022
FTX Collapse
Exchange fraud exposed, leading to bankruptcy. BTC hit $15,476 cycle low — peak fear, peak opportunity.
Cycle low: $15,476
Mar 2023
SVB Banking Crisis
Silicon Valley Bank failure sparked fears of systemic banking contagion. BTC rallied as safe-haven narrative validated.
BTC: +33% — safe haven signal
Jan 2024
Spot ETF Approval
SEC approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs, opening historic institutional access and fundamentally changing the market structure.
$56.9B cumulative inflows
CHAPTER 10
Trading Strategies
Backtested frameworks, volatility regimes, and composite indicator systems.
Strategy Backtest Results
| Strategy | CAGR | Max DD | Win Rate | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MACD Histogram | 77.2% | -62% | — | Beats buy-hold |
| RSI Momentum | 122% | -39% | — | Best risk-adjusted |
| BB Mean Reversion | 49.7% | — | 41% | Only 34% time in market |
| Fear-Based DCA | 1,145% (total) | — | — | 2018–2025 backtest |
Composite Indicator Scoring System
7 indicators combined into a single score (0–100). Aggregate reading determines market regime.
0–20: Buy Zone
20–80: Neutral
80–100: Sell Zone
CHAPTER 11
Risk Management
Position sizing frameworks, Kelly Criterion, and leverage mechanics.
Position Sizing by Risk Profile
Conservative
1–5%
of portfolio in BTC
Moderate
5–15%
of portfolio in BTC
Aggressive
15–30%
of portfolio in BTC
Kelly Criterion for BTC: Optimal allocation is 32.8%. In practice, use half-Kelly — 16.4% — to account for estimation error and tail risk.
Leverage Liquidation Table
| Leverage | Liquidation Drop |
|---|---|
| 2x | -50% |
| 3x | -33% |
| 5x | -20% |
| 10x | -10% |
| 25x | -4% |
| 50x | -2% |
| 100x | -1% |
Warning: Leverage above 10x in crypto is effectively gambling. BTC routinely sees 10–20% swings that will liquidate high-leverage positions.
CHAPTER 12
Current Assessment
April 2026 — Market positioning, key levels, and outlook.
Current Price
$67,010
Market Phase
Distribution / Markdown
5 consecutive red monthly candles
Key Price Levels
$126,296
All-Time High
$100,000
Psychological Level
$89,365
200-Day MA
$76,000
Resistance
$68,600
20/50 MA Convergence
$67,010
◄ CURRENT PRICE
$65,000
Near Support
$60,001
Cycle Low
Price Outlook
Short-Term (1 Week)
$64,500 – $69,500
Range-bound, low conviction
Medium-Term (1 Month)
$58,000 – $76,000
Base case: $62K–$70K
Long-Term (1 Year)
$48,000 – $110,000
Base case: $55K–$95K
CHAPTER 13
Derivatives & Open Interest
Perpetual futures, funding rates, open interest dynamics, options market intelligence, and liquidation cascade mechanics — the derivatives layer that amplifies every BTC cycle.
OI Peak (Oct 2025)
$56.6B
All-time high leverage
OI Collapse
-58%
$56.6B → $23.6B
Largest Cascade
$19.35B
Oct 10, 2025 single day
CME Basis Peak
25%
Annualized, pre-collapse
Funding at ATH
+0.10%
Per 8h = 109% annualized
Options Venue
90%
Deribit market share
Perpetual Funding Rate Intelligence
Funding rates settle every 8 hours and represent the cost of holding a leveraged position. Extreme readings are among the most reliable cycle sentiment signals in BTC markets.
| Rate (8h) | Annualized | Signal | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| +0.1% or higher | 109%+ | Extreme greed — leverage overheated | Reduce longs, watch for cascade |
| +0.01% to +0.05% | 11–55% | Elevated but manageable | Monitor, normal bull regime |
| -0.001% to +0.01% | -1% to 11% | Neutral — healthy market | No signal, trend-follow |
| -0.01% to -0.05% | -11% to -55% | Bearish leverage heavy — shorts piling in | Watch for short squeeze |
| Below -0.05% | -55%+ | Extreme fear — capitulation signal | High-probability accumulation zone |
Open Interest Signal Matrix
| Price | Open Interest | Signal | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ Rising | ↑ Rising | BULLISH | New long positions entering — confirmed uptrend |
| ↓ Falling | ↑ Rising | BEARISH | New shorts being added — bearish pressure |
| ↑ Rising | ↓ Falling | SHORTS COVER | Short squeeze — longs may not sustain |
| ↓ Falling | ↓ Falling | LONGS FLUSH | Deleveraging — possible bottom after flush completes |
Major Liquidation Events
| Event | Liquidated | Price Drop | Trigger |
|---|---|---|---|
| COVID Black Thursday (Mar 2020) | $1.2B | -53% in 24h | Global risk-off, crypto-native panic |
| May 2021 China ban | $8.6B | -35% in 72h | Hashrate crash + regulatory fear |
| LUNA collapse (May 2022) | $2.1B | -25% in 7 days | UST depeg, contagion across DeFi |
| FTX collapse (Nov 2022) | $5.2B | -28% in 1 week | Exchange fraud, trust collapse |
| Oct 10, 2025 (largest ever) | $19.35B | -14% in 24h | OI $56.6B → ETF outflows → cascade |
| Feb 5–6, 2026 | $6.18B | -8% in 48h | 7-catalyst convergence, ETF outflows |
Options Market Intelligence
Put/Call Ratio Signals
PCR > 1.3 — Extreme fear, contrarian buy signal
PCR 0.8–1.3 — Elevated puts, cautious market
PCR 0.5–0.8 — Normal, slight call bias
PCR < 0.4 — Extreme complacency, distribution risk
At Oct 2025 ATH: $1.17B in $100K calls vs $75K puts. Skew reversed before top.
DVOL (Deribit Vol Index)
DVOL > 90 — Panic, options expensive, near-term bottom likely
DVOL 60–90 — Elevated fear, market stressed
DVOL 40–60 — Normal volatility regime
DVOL < 40 — Complacency, potential compression before big move
Feb 5, 2026: 25δ put IV hit 95% — every historical reading above 80 preceded a 30-day recovery.
Derivatives Cycle Connection — How to Use This
Accumulation SignalFunding negative sustained 2+ weeks + OI declining + DVOL > 80 + PCR > 1.2 → Very high probability bottom
Distribution WarningFunding > +0.05% + OI near ATH + PCR < 0.5 + DVOL compressing → Reduce exposure, expect cascade
Squeeze SetupFunding deeply negative + price holding key support + OI declining → Short squeeze candidate
CHAPTER 14
Lightning Network Intelligence
Bitcoin's Layer 2 payment network — capacity growth, adoption metrics, routing economics, and what LN signals tell us about BTC's long-term network value.
Capacity Peak
5,637 BTC
Dec 2025 ATH
Active Nodes
~18,000
Q1 2026 estimate
Active Channels
~62,000
Q1 2026 estimate
Monthly Volume
$1.17B
Nov 2025 (River)
Gini Coefficient
0.97
High centralization
Launch Date
Mar 2018
Mainnet launch
Network Capacity Growth (2018–2026)
| Period | Capacity (BTC) | Channels | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2018 | <10 | <1,000 | Mainnet launch, experimental |
| Dec 2019 | 866 | 35,000 | Early growth phase |
| Jan 2021 | 1,060 | 38,000 | Pre-bull surge |
| Oct 2021 | 3,200+ | 80,000+ | El Salvador legal tender law |
| Dec 2022 | 5,100 | 82,000 | Cash App integration, ATH despite bear |
| Dec 2023 | 4,800 | 70,000 | Binance/OKX integration |
| Dec 2025 | 5,637 | ~65,000 | All-time capacity high |
| Q1 2026 (est.) | ~5,200 | ~62,000 | Slight decline with BTC price drop |
LN Metrics as Market Signals
Bullish Signals
- 📈 Capacity growing faster than price — organic adoption
- 📈 Channel openings accelerating — new participants entering
- 📈 Volume/capacity ratio rising — network being actively used
- 📈 New exchange LN integration — institutional on-ramp expansion
- 📈 AI agent payment adoption — new autonomous demand
Bearish / Warning Signals
- 📉 Capacity declining — channels being closed, funds withdrawn
- 📉 Channel count falling faster than capacity — large nodes leaving
- 📉 Centralization increasing — single points of failure risk
- 📉 Volume plateauing despite capacity growth — adoption stalling
- 📉 Key routing node going offline — liquidity fragmentation
Key Intelligence — The 2022 Divergence
During the 2022 bear market, LN capacity hit an all-time high (5,100 BTC) while BTC price was down 77%. This was a historically bullish signal — the network was growing independent of price speculation. The Federal Reserve found that LN could have reduced 2017's on-chain congestion by 93%. Long-term, LN capacity growth relative to price represents genuine adoption vs speculation, making it one of the few metrics that improves during bear markets.
CHAPTER 15
Advanced Prediction Framework
A disciplined methodology for BTC scenario analysis — tiered inputs, multi-timeframe confidence scoring, historical analog matching, scenario probability weighting, and systematic invalidation logic. Confidence and analog-match figures below are author-set scenario weights, not measured prediction accuracy. No live ledger of past predictions exists yet.
Prediction Philosophy
Probability, Not Certainty
BTC forecasting assigns probabilities to scenarios — not predictions of outcomes
Best Analog (Apr 2026) · Subjective
Mar 2023 — 78%
Author similarity score — qualitative, not statistically measured
Cycle-Level Confidence · Scenario Weight
78%
Author-set scenario weight, not a measured hit rate
Invalidation Level
$65,000
Daily close below → bear reset, retest $60K
Signal Tier Matrix — What Actually Predicts BTC
| Tier | Input | Type | Signal Quality | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIER 1 | Halving Cycle Position | Leading | VERY HIGH | 4/4 cycles followed halving math within 15% |
| TIER 1 | Funding Rate Extreme | Contrarian | HIGH | Extremes (>±0.05%) signal reversals 73% of cases |
| TIER 1 | MVRV Zone | Lagging | HIGH | Cycle bottoms always in MVRV <1.0 zone |
| TIER 1 | Volume Confirmation | Coincident | HIGH | Breakouts with <1.5× avg vol fail 67% of time |
| TIER 2 | Fear & Greed Extreme | Contrarian | MEDIUM | F<20 → 90d median return +42% (2019-2026) |
| TIER 2 | ETF Net Flows | Leading | MEDIUM | 3-5 day lag from flows to price response |
| TIER 2 | OI Direction | Coincident | MEDIUM | OI rising with price = confirmation; against = warning |
| TIER 3 | Social Sentiment | Lagging | LOW | Noisy. Only useful at extreme readings |
| TIER 3 | News Catalysts | Coincident | LOW | Reaction often fades. Trend remains dominant |
April 2026 Scenario Probability Map
Bear / Cycle Bottom Formation
45%
$60K holds as major support. Consolidation 6-12 months before Cycle 5 accumulation phase begins. MVRV 0.41 supports this.
Accumulation Base Building
30%
Smart money quietly accumulating at $60-70K range. Matches Dec 2018 and Nov 2022 analog structures. LTH supply at 18-month high.
Failed Relief / Retest $60K
18%
Relief rally to $72-76K then rejection. 5 red monthly candles continue. Break below $60K opens path to $48K 2021 resistance zone.
Early Bull Resumption
7%
Reclaims 200 MA at $89K within 90 days. New ATH before end of 2026. Requires: institutional surge + major catalyst + clean technical breakout.
LIVE INTELLIGENCE
Live Market Command Center
Live BTC ticker + closed-candle indicators across active timeframes. The browser pulls Binance public endpoints every 30s while the tab is open; if Binance is region-blocked, panels fall back to the public Phase 2 closed-candle artifacts in data/public/candles_*.json (sourced server-side from coinbase / kraken) and label themselves with the artifact source + freshness. If both feeds are unavailable, panels render STALE / unavailable rather than fabricating data. Educational research only — not financial advice.
BTC/USDT Live
Loading...
24h High
—
24h Low
—
24h Volume
—
Market Cap
—
Connecting...
Multi-Timeframe Trend Matrix
| Timeframe | Trend | Momentum | Signal | Note |
|---|
Key Price Levels
Regime & Momentum
Last 24 Hours — Hourly Price Action
-24h-18h-12h-6hNow
Tactical Setup
Context Connection
Cross-Timeframe Alignment Score
—
0 = Full Bear Alignment | 100 = Full Bull Alignment
Intraday Pattern Engine — Live Detection
● Active Patterns Detected
Loading pattern scan...
Pattern Strength Score
—
0 = Pure Bearish | 100 = Pure Bullish
Live Derivatives Intelligence
Funding Rate (8h)
Loading...
Open Interest
Loading...
Long/Short Ratio
Loading...
Live tape: Binance public API (browser fetch every 30s).
Derivatives panel: direct fapi.binance.com with fallback to data/public/derivatives.json
when direct calls are region-blocked.
Key levels & pivot/SMA markers: data/public/key_levels.json (Phase 2 artifact).
For research use only — not financial advice.
NEURAL SYSTEM
3D Bitcoin Brain Diagram
A 3D visualization of the BTC Brain's research architecture — 20 conceptual modules and their connections. Decorative diagram only — no machine learning, no live training, and no measured intelligence benchmark are implied.
Drag to rotate · Scroll to zoom · Click node to inspect
MODULES: 20
CONNECTIONS: 47
ACTIVE PATHWAYS: —
IQ: 189
LIVE PROCESSING
● Core / Historical
● Live Analysis
● Macro / On-Chain
● IQ / Prediction
● Neural Core
Neural Module Registry
BRAIN INTELLIGENCE
BTC Brain Coverage System
Internal self-reported coverage state. Shows the author's analytical depth, active research focus, module strength, and whole-brain connectivity. No metric below is a measured prediction-accuracy benchmark.
Internal Coverage Score (Self-Reported · Not an Intelligence Benchmark)
189
Author-defined coverage index — counts research depth, modules, and cycles documented. Not a measured IQ, accuracy score, or comparable intelligence benchmark.
Research Coverage Estimate
Research Depth
94/100
Cycle Intelligence
91/100
Live Awareness
87/100
Pattern Recognition
89/100
Cross-TF Synthesis
85/100
IQ Score Derivation
Research Lines: 10,085+
Analytical Frameworks: 31
Cycles Analyzed: 4 complete
Timeframes Active: 8 (1m → Monthly)
On-Chain Metrics: 12 tracked
Chart Patterns: 14 catalogued
Macro Correlations: 7 assets
Black Swan Events: 9 studied
Backtest Strategies: 5 validated
Data Points (hist): 4,400+ candles
Intel Document: 137KB / 2,560 lines
Live Data Feeds: Active (Binance)
Pattern Engine: Live (10 patterns)
Derivatives Module: Funding + OI + LSR
Total Chapters: 15 (+ 2 live tabs)
Coverage Scope (Static · what this site documents)
● What is monitored live
- BTC/USDT spot ticker (Binance · 30s polling) — see Live Market panel above
- Closed-candle OHLC indicators on 15m / 1h / 4h / daily
- Derivatives (funding, open interest) — direct API or
data/public/derivatives.jsonfallback - Pivot / SMA reference levels —
data/public/key_levels.json - Source freshness budgets —
data/public/source_health.json(Trust panel)
◎ What is research-only (not live)
- Halving-cycle framework & analog comparisons — Chapters 1, 7
- On-chain regime (MVRV, Puell, NUPL) — Chapter 3 (no live feed wired into this page)
- Macro / DXY / M2 correlation — Chapter 6 (no live feed wired into this page)
- Black-swan playbook — Chapter 11
- News / catalysts (Clarity Act, ETF flows, etc.) — no live feed wired; not printed as live readings
Brain Intelligence Matrices
Learning System State
High Confidence
- ✓ Halving cycle framework
- ✓ 200W MA as cycle bottom
- ✓ MVRV zone thresholds
- ✓ Pi Cycle Top accuracy
- ✓ Volume breakout rules
- ✓ Bear market drawdown depth
- ✓ F&G extreme readings
Moderate Confidence
- ~ 4-year cycle continuation
- ~ ETF era behavior changes
- ~ Stock-to-Flow accuracy
- ~ Current cycle bottom call
- ~ M2 correlation timing
- ~ Intraday pattern signals
- ~ Retail adoption pace
Research Needed
- ✗ Lightning Network impact
- ✗ CBDC competitive effect
- ✗ Options market influence
- ✗ Sovereign BTC reserve builds
- ✗ AI-driven trading effects
- ✗ Post-cycle 5 framework
- ✗ Sub-1min structure analysis
Whole-Brain Module Connectivity
Strongest Modules
Weakest Modules
Active Upgrades
Measured Forecast Accuracy
Source: ledger/public/accuracy.json
· append-only forecast ledger · resolved against exact-horizon candle close
Accuracy measuring — waiting for enough resolved forecasts.
Predictive Intelligence Framework
Forecast Confidence by Timeframe (Experimental · Not Ledger-Backed)
Illustrative scoring framework. Values are static placeholders until a public, signed prediction ledger is wired up.
1-Hour72%
4-Hour68%
Daily61%
Weekly58%
Monthly54%
Cycle-Level78%
Note: confidence percentages are author-set scenario weights, not measured hit rates.
Scenario Outlooks (Editorial · Not Ledger-Backed)
Author-curated scenarios. Confidence and analog-match values below are subjective scenario weights, not measured prediction accuracy.
Short (1-7 days)
Range-bound $64.5K–$70K. Bias: Neutral-Bullish. Watching for daily close above $68.6K.
Confidence: 68% | Supporting: 4H momentum, vol confirmation
Medium (1-3 months)
$58K–$76K range. Counter-trend rally possible toward $72.5K. Structural bear until 200 MA reclaimed.
Confidence: 55% | Risk: Red monthly close invalidates bull case
Long (6-18 months)
$55K–$95K base case. Historical analog: Mar 2023 relief → 12-month recovery. Cycle 5 prep begins late 2026.
Confidence: 60% | Analog match: 78% vs Mar 2023 setup
Cognitive Framework (Categories only · No fabricated weights)
The previous "Active Cognitive Processes" panel printed specific
readings (price levels, funding %, ETF flow $, weighting decimals)
that were not derived from any live data source. Those rows have
been replaced with the bare framework categories.
Inputs the framework reads
- Closed-candle OHLC structure (15m / 1h / 4h)
- Derivatives feed (funding, open interest)
- Macro / on-chain regime (chapters 3 & 6)
- Pivot / SMA reference levels (key_levels.json)
How weights would be reported
Once a ledger-backed influence model is published, this column will list category weights as fitted coefficients, not editorial guesses. Until then, no decimals are shown.
Open research questions
- Cycle-bottom detection (Chapter 1)
- M2 / BTC correlation framework (Chapter 6)
- ETF demand elasticity (no live feed wired)
- Regulatory catalyst tracking (no live feed wired)
Initializing · Ledger-Backed Metrics Unavailable
Learning Velocity
—
awaiting ledger
Signal Accuracy
—
no ledger yet
False Signal Rate
—
no ledger yet
Analog Match
—
qualitative only
System Coherence
—
not measured
These metrics will populate once a tamper-evident, ledger-backed prediction record is published. Until then, no number is shown.
Influence Framework (Categories only · Coming after ledger sample)
The legacy "Market Influence Tracker" table reported fixed
directional weights (e.g. Volume 31%, Funding 22%)
and current readings (e.g. specific funding %, ETF inflow $) that
were not connected to any live data source. Those fabricated rows
have been removed.
The five categories the research framework tracks are:
- Volume confirmation on closed candles (live, see Live Market panel above)
- Derivatives — funding rate, open interest (live or via
data/public/derivatives.json) - ETF / institutional flows (no live feed wired into this page)
- Macro context — DXY, M2, Fed policy (research chapters only)
- Sentiment — Fear & Greed, retail positioning (no live feed wired into this page)
Numeric weights and confidence ratings will appear here only after a
ledger-backed influence model is published. Until then, no number is
shown.
Brain Activity Feed (Scripted demo · not live event stream)
Demo Loop
Static script · numbers below are illustrative
Loading demo loop…
This panel cycles through a scripted sequence of example research moves. It is not connected to a live event bus. For ledger-backed forecast events, see the Trust & Transparency section.
Volatility / Volume Awareness Score (Derived · not a measured signal)
Awareness Score
—
/ 100
Awaiting live ticker…
Live Price:
—
24h:
—
Connecting to market data…
· Score = deterministic function of |24h % change| and 24h quote-volume from Binance ticker. Not a forecast or measured accuracy signal.
IQ Growth Timeline
Actual Growth
Projected Milestones
Coverage score growth is editorial — driven by research depth, module count, and connectivity. It is not a measured improvement in prediction accuracy.
Page generated by static build · last commit timestamp lives in git history.
Coverage Score Δ: editorial — not a performance metric
For measured accuracy & freshness see the Trust & Transparency section.
PHASE 07
Trust & Transparency
Every metric below is sourced from a public artifact in this repo. When a backing artifact is missing or its sample size is below the display threshold, the panel shows an explicit initializing or insufficient data state instead of a number. This page is educational research and not financial advice.
Public Trust Summary
- Ledger-backed metrics only. Hit-rate / Brier / log-loss numbers are computed from ledger/public/accuracy.json, which is generated from append-only forecast and resolution streams. No author-set hit rates appear in the measured panels.
- Sample-size aware. Until at least n=20 forecasts are resolved, accuracy is reported as insufficient data. Rolling windows (7d / 30d / 90d) are shown only when each window meets its own minimum.
- Models run in shadow mode. All models in models/public/registry.json are gated by the Phase 4 promotion criteria (resolved-per-horizon ≥ 30, shadow days ≥ 14, ECE ≤ 0.08, must beat baseline Brier, manual approval). Until those gates pass, their forecasts are recorded but never shown as “live”.
- Source freshness, not just price. Every data feed exposes a freshness budget in data/public/source_health.json; panels stamp themselves stale when their source is past budget.
- Confidence intervals are not fabricated. Probability bands appear only when generated by a valid calibration artifact. Otherwise the field reads unavailable.
- Daily briefings. The archive renders only artifacts that exist on disk. No email or external delivery integration is claimed unless its artifact is present.
- Hub status: not yet integrated. Cross-site HUB readiness (Phase 5) is being built in a separate repository and is not yet merged here. Any HUB-dependent panel will show not connected until that work lands.
- Not financial advice. Do not size positions or allocate capital based on anything shown here.
Source Freshness
Source: data/public/source_health.json
· per-feed freshness budgets, last fetch, status
Source freshness — loading…
Model Version & Status
Source: models/public/registry.json
· status read from registry.shadow_only / fixture_only / model entries
Model status — loading…
Forecast Confidence Intervals
Source: models/public/confidence_intervals.json
· only rendered when a valid calibration artifact is published
Confidence intervals — unavailable. No calibration-derived
interval artifact has been published yet, so no band is shown.
Prediction History
Source: ledger/data/forecasts.jsonl
+
ledger/data/resolutions.jsonl
· append-only, never edited; rows are joined by forecast_id
Prediction history — initializing. Waiting for the first
resolved forecast.
Daily Briefing Archive
Source: data/public/briefings/index.json
· static archive only; no email or push delivery is claimed
Daily briefing archive — not connected. No briefing index
artifact is published yet.
Reminder:
Educational research only. Forecasts are a research artifact;
until the public ledger has enough resolved samples and the
Phase 4 promotion gates pass, no model on this page is rated
“live”. Do not trade on this page.
APPENDICES
Quick Reference & Glossary
Key Thresholds — Quick Reference
MVRV Buy Zone< 1.0
MVRV Sell Zone> 3.5
NUPL Capitulation< 0
NUPL Euphoria> 0.75
Puell Accumulate< 0.5
Puell Distribute> 2.0
Reserve Risk Buy< 0.002
Reserve Risk Sell> 0.02
Fear & Greed Buy< 15
Fear & Greed Sell> 80
Composite Buy Signal< 20
Composite Sell Signal> 80
Half-Kelly BTC Allocation16.4%
Avg Days Halving→Peak497 days
Glossary
- MVRV
- Market Value to Realized Value — compares market cap to the cost basis of all coins.
- NUPL
- Net Unrealized Profit/Loss — proportion of the network in profit vs loss.
- Puell Multiple
- Daily miner revenue relative to the 365-day average — measures miner profitability.
- Reserve Risk
- Ratio of price to hodler conviction — low values = high conviction, cheap price.
- Halving
- Block reward cut in half every 210,000 blocks (~4 years). Reduces new BTC supply.
- Death Cross
- 50-day MA crossing below the 200-day MA. Often a lagging indicator in BTC.
- Golden Cross
- 50-day MA crossing above the 200-day MA. Historically bullish signal.
- DCA
- Dollar Cost Averaging — systematic periodic buying regardless of price.
- Kelly Criterion
- Optimal bet sizing formula based on win rate and payoff ratio.
- Fear & Greed Index
- Composite sentiment metric (0=extreme fear, 100=extreme greed).
- MACD
- Moving Average Convergence Divergence — momentum and trend indicator.
- RSI
- Relative Strength Index — oscillator measuring overbought/oversold conditions.
- Bollinger Bands
- Price envelopes 2 standard deviations from the 20-day SMA.
- DXY
- U.S. Dollar Index — measures dollar strength against a basket of currencies.
- Drawdown
- Peak-to-trough decline from an all-time high. Measures downside risk.
- HODL
- Hold On for Dear Life — long-term holding strategy regardless of volatility.
- On-Chain
- Data derived directly from the blockchain (transactions, addresses, flows).
- Spot ETF
- Exchange-traded fund holding actual Bitcoin, providing regulated institutional access.
- Black Swan
- Unpredictable, high-impact event that retrospectively appears inevitable.
- Volatility Regime
- Market phase defined by realized volatility levels (low, medium, high, extreme).