{
  "best_tradeable_slice": {
    "expectancy_bps": 197.90293573363383,
    "expectancy_maker_2bps": 195.90293573363383,
    "hit_rate": 0.74822695035461,
    "majority_rate": 0.7340425531914894,
    "n": 282,
    "score": 203.55678974959488,
    "slice": "horizon=24h|regime=bull",
    "vs_majority_pp": 0.014184397163120588,
    "wilson_lb_95": 0.6944634157805037
  },
  "edge_hunter_version": "edge-hunter-v0.1.0",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-28T06:01:10Z",
  "improvement_target": {
    "current": 0.5944827586206897,
    "current_n": 725,
    "hard_goal": 0.7,
    "metric": "horizon=24h hit_rate",
    "note": "Continuous improvement target \u2014 do not claim until n>=100 and wilson_lb clears 0.55",
    "stretch_goal": 0.65
  },
  "min_n_display": 20,
  "next_experiments": [
    {
      "action": "Keep dual-issuer policy24 on 12h/24h; never promote 1h",
      "hypothesis": "24h SMA direction is the primary fee-surviving edge",
      "id": "exp-24h-primary",
      "priority": 1
    },
    {
      "action": "policy24 uses inverted confidence mapping (already live if dual-issuer on)",
      "hypothesis": "High SMA |rel| confidence is inverted \u2014 mild divergence wins more",
      "id": "exp-invert-confidence",
      "priority": 2
    },
    {
      "action": "Shadow-compare policy skip-hour20 vs baseline on rolling 30d",
      "hypothesis": "Hour 20 UTC underperforms \u2014 filter improves expectancy",
      "id": "exp-skip-toxic-hours",
      "priority": 3
    },
    {
      "action": "Once regime labels accumulate, promote regime-gated candidate if maker>0",
      "hypothesis": "Edge concentrates in specific regimes (bull/bear/chop)",
      "id": "exp-regime-conditional",
      "priority": 4
    },
    {
      "action": "Run Phase 3 walk-forward on live candles; dual-issue if beats SMA",
      "hypothesis": "Logistic/SIIE features beat SMA on 24h OOS Brier",
      "id": "exp-ml-candidate",
      "priority": 5
    },
    {
      "action": "Validate OOS next 14d before encoding into issuer policy",
      "evidence": {
        "expectancy_maker_2bps": 195.90293573363383,
        "hit_rate": 0.74822695035461,
        "n": 282,
        "vs_majority_pp": 0.014184397163120588,
        "wilson_lb_95": 0.6944634157805037
      },
      "hypothesis": "Slice `horizon=24h|regime=bull` shows maker=195.9bps hit=0.748 n=282",
      "id": "auto-3690577",
      "priority": 10
    },
    {
      "action": "Validate OOS next 14d before encoding into issuer policy",
      "evidence": {
        "expectancy_maker_2bps": 187.3101022836697,
        "hit_rate": 0.6826923076923077,
        "n": 104,
        "vs_majority_pp": 0.17307692307692313,
        "wilson_lb_95": 0.5880988571231229
      },
      "hypothesis": "Slice `horizon=24h|dow=3` shows maker=187.3bps hit=0.683 n=104",
      "id": "auto-3209885",
      "priority": 10
    },
    {
      "action": "Validate OOS next 14d before encoding into issuer policy",
      "evidence": {
        "expectancy_maker_2bps": 121.58147522059124,
        "hit_rate": 0.76,
        "n": 25,
        "vs_majority_pp": 0.16000000000000003,
        "wilson_lb_95": 0.5656994004476144
      },
      "hypothesis": "Slice `horizon=24h|hour_utc=20` shows maker=121.6bps hit=0.760 n=25",
      "id": "auto-1835227",
      "priority": 10
    },
    {
      "action": "Validate OOS next 14d before encoding into issuer policy",
      "evidence": {
        "expectancy_maker_2bps": 120.53905103075701,
        "hit_rate": 0.8,
        "n": 25,
        "vs_majority_pp": 0.16000000000000003,
        "wilson_lb_95": 0.6086866446346176
      },
      "hypothesis": "Slice `horizon=24h|hour_utc=18` shows maker=120.5bps hit=0.800 n=25",
      "id": "auto-6811594",
      "priority": 10
    },
    {
      "action": "Validate OOS next 14d before encoding into issuer policy",
      "evidence": {
        "expectancy_maker_2bps": 125.93625576277105,
        "hit_rate": 0.64,
        "n": 25,
        "vs_majority_pp": 0.040000000000000036,
        "wilson_lb_95": 0.44518154601046633
      },
      "hypothesis": "Slice `horizon=24h|hour_utc=01` shows maker=125.9bps hit=0.640 n=25",
      "id": "auto-5192794",
      "priority": 10
    },
    {
      "action": "Validate OOS next 14d before encoding into issuer policy",
      "evidence": {
        "expectancy_maker_2bps": 122.59843566017895,
        "hit_rate": 0.76,
        "n": 25,
        "vs_majority_pp": 0.07999999999999996,
        "wilson_lb_95": 0.5656994004476144
      },
      "hypothesis": "Slice `horizon=24h|hour_utc=16` shows maker=122.6bps hit=0.760 n=25",
      "id": "auto-3252759",
      "priority": 10
    },
    {
      "action": "Validate OOS next 14d before encoding into issuer policy",
      "evidence": {
        "expectancy_maker_2bps": 114.35834580150627,
        "hit_rate": 0.76,
        "n": 25,
        "vs_majority_pp": 0.07999999999999996,
        "wilson_lb_95": 0.5656994004476144
      },
      "hypothesis": "Slice `horizon=24h|hour_utc=17` shows maker=114.4bps hit=0.760 n=25",
      "id": "auto-3589220",
      "priority": 10
    },
    {
      "action": "Validate OOS next 14d before encoding into issuer policy",
      "evidence": {
        "expectancy_maker_2bps": 90.52267367495593,
        "hit_rate": 0.7441860465116279,
        "n": 129,
        "vs_majority_pp": 0.1937984496124031,
        "wilson_lb_95": 0.662591295698396
      },
      "hypothesis": "Slice `horizon=24h|dow=1` shows maker=90.5bps hit=0.744 n=129",
      "id": "auto-8043760",
      "priority": 10
    }
  ],
  "notes": [
    "Edge hunter never auto-promotes. It ranks hypotheses for dual-issuer / Phase 3.",
    "Maker fee assumption = 2 bps round-trip.",
    "Prefer slices with vs_majority_pp>0 to avoid pure bull-bias artifacts."
  ],
  "schema_version": "1",
  "top_exploratory": [
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